It's been a year for me, folks. I haven't been nearly as consistent as I had hoped, but the circumstances didn't do me any favors. I won't bore you with those details, but just know that this year's content is for me. I hope to hit some sort of stride again, but I am going to prioritize my marriage, my happiness and my health before fantasy football. I think a huge key to life is balance, heading into my second year of content creation I found that I was lacking balance in many ways. This year was supposed to be one of growth as a content creator. It turned into a year of imposter syndrome & exhaustion, where I considered throwing in the towel on multiple occasions. I'm sorry for the lack of available content and for the sheer lack of engagement, but if you were around to witness the drama-filled offseason of 'fantasy football Twitter', I'm sure you can understand. That being said, it was a much needed time of reflection and growth, both personally and professionally. Sob fest over, while I wasn't active, per say, I was busy behind the scenes. While I may have missed the boat on draft day help, I love receipts just as much as the next content creator. Here are mine for the 2021 NFL season.
There is a podcast where I break down my QB rankings, however I want to get it in writing as well. Check out my new solo venture, the Run It Back Fantasy Football Podcast, on Spotify and Google Podcasts Please consider subscribing to this podcast, I appreciate the ongoing support!. This article will focus exclusively on my QB 1's (ranking 1-12) and some later round QB's I love for 2021
QB 1's:
QB 1 | Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes may be a chalky pick for QB 1, however I have been on record stating that I do not believe that Mahomes's 2019 5,000 passing yard + 50 passing TD campaign is his ceiling. Mahomes has two of the most lethal pass catchers in the NFL at his disposal in Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill. Let's not forget the Chief's lackluster Super Bowl LV performance. The Chiefs will be on a mission to prove that they are still the best of the best team in the NFL in 2021
QB 2 | Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray was on a ridiculous pace in 2020 until his season was interrupted by a shoulder injury. Not only is Murray healthy heading into 2021, the Cardinals added one of the most explosive athletes in the 2021 NFL draft, Rondale Moore who can open up this air raid offense in some unique ways. If there is a QB to best Mahomes in 2021, it's Kyler Murray. You can get him much later in your drafts too, making him a great value in 2021, as he has a very clear path to finishing as the QB 1 overall.
QB 3 | Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson became the NFL's youngest league MVP in 2019. The popular opinion is to say that Lamar Jackson can't throw. I strongly disagree with this assessment, as I think this is more of an offensive scheme issue than a lack of ability from the young franchise QB. This year the Ravens added a slew of WR's to help Lamar expand as a passer. They didn't spend the money and the draft capital to NOT use these guys. Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins & Tylan Wallace have arrived to open up the passing game. Mark Andrews also just signed one of the richest extensions we have seen for a TE to date. The loss of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards to a season ending ACL injury ensures that Jackson's rushing work will still be there as well. I'm excited to see what Lamar can do with this revamped and reimagined Ravens offense.
QB 4 | Josh Allen
Josh Allen took his game to new heights in 2020, establishing himself as a true franchise QB and earning a lucrative contract extension this offseason. Shouts out to my best friend and co-host, Alex Sutton, for his extremely bold prediction (at the time) that Josh Allen would win an MVP in the next three seasons. He made this claim while everyone and their mother's still had tremendous questions about Josh Allen's ability to be anything other than an elite fantasy QB. The Bills project to be one of the pass happiest teams in the NFL this year. Combine that with Allen's rushing chops and you have all the makings of a high end QB 1.
QB 5 | Dak Prescott
Much like Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott was on an INSANE pace in 2020 during his 5 healthy games played. Prescott was on track to crush the NFL passing yards record held by Peyton Manning (2013). A horrific ankle injury ended Prescott's 2020 season. After making a full recovery from his ankle surgery and fending off a training camp injury, Dak is fully cleared to play week 1. His floor is safe and his ceiling is unmatched, especially considering the elite weapons at his disposal.
QB 6 | Aaron Rodgers
After producing and staring in one of the most captivating soap opera's of the past decade, Aaron Rodgers decided to return to Green Bay for what could potentially be his final season in green & gold. I for one am #TeamAaron when it comes to the great debate of Rodgers v Wisconsin, and we know that nobody plays pissed off football quite like Aaron Rodgers. I am expecting last year's QB 2 to regress slightly, but the sky is truly the limit for the reigning NFL MVP.
QB 7 | Tom Brady
I view Brady in a similar light as Dak Prescott (sans some of the rushing upside, obviously). The ageless wonder is coming off of yet another super bowl victory. The Bucs are also returning all 22 of their starters. Tom Brady and the Bucs should hit their stride even earlier in 2021, giving Brady the chance to yet again finish as a top 8 fantasy QB. One of the best late round QB targets in drafts this year.
QB 8 | Russell Wilson
#LetRussCook was a fantastic experience last year... all 8 weeks of it. 2020 was very much so the tale of two Russ's. Russell Wilson has the talent and the weapons around him to be the QB 1, however history has shown us that the Seahawks are borderline unwilling to let him try to get there. I think Russ is locked in to finish as a top 12 guy again, but the road to that top 12 finish might be bumpy.
QB 9 | Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts caught a lot of flack for his 4 games as a starter in 2020. No one seems to remember how much of a dumpster fire the Eagles were as a whole. Hurts is one of those QB's with league winning potential due to 1. his immense rushing upside and 2. his ADP. Similar to Lamar Jackson, I think Hurts is underrated as a passer despite his admittedly awful passing statistics from 2020 (again... Travis Fulgham was the WR 1 folks). Enter Devonta Smith, former teammate and reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The addition of Devonta Smith along with the preseason emergence of guys like Jalen Reagor (2020 1st round pick) and Quez Watkins, Hurts is suddenly surrounded by some very capable pass catchers, and he is a force to be reckoned with as a rusher, giving him massive upside in fantasy football.
QB 10 | Justin Herbert
Coming off of a historic rookie campaign, Justin Herbert proved a lot of doubters wrong, myself included. The Chargers ranked 5th in passing attempts in 2020, proving that they have plenty of confidence in the young QB to go out there and sling it. A re-vamped OL, the return of Austin Ekeler, and the consistency of Keenan Allen provide a safe floor for Herbert to take his game to the next level in year 2. I love everything about his situation, but I can't seem to get him higher than my QB 10 despite the upside for more clearly being there.
QB 11 | Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford has finally escaped the clutches of Detroit, taking his talents to LA. Teaming up with one of the best offensive minds in the NFL in coach Sean McVay, Stafford is poised for a resurgence to fantasy greatness. The Rams' plans took a huge hit when Cam Akers tore his Achilles tendon earlier this year, but this bodes well for Matthew Stafford's fantasy outlook, as the Rams will now shift from what could have been a balanced offensive attack to an all out air assault led by one of the NFL's great gunslingers. Out of all starting QB's, very few have a clearer path to 5,000 passing yards in 2021 than Stafford.
QB 12 | Ryan Tannehill
Since joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019, Tannehill has been one of the most efficient QB's in all of the NFL, throwing for 55 TD's and just 13 INT's in a two year span. The Titans' rushing attack led by Derrick Henry forces opposing defenses to respect the run at all times. This results in some generous converges, allowing Tannehill to carve up opposing defenses. Enter future Hall of Famer, Julio Jones. At 32 years old, Julio is nearing the end of what will go down as one of the best WR careers of all time, but make no mistake, he's not done yet. I believe the addition of Julio Jones will result in increased passing volume in Tennessee where Tannehill's efficiency will now be bolstered by the uptick in volume. Now the Titans have three all-pro caliber weapons all at Ryan Tannehill's disposal.
Sleepers:
The term sleeper may be one of the most overused terms in the fantasy football industry, however the sentiment hold true... Every single year there are guys that fall outside of the traditional top 12 that burst onto the scene in huge ways. These are QB's that can and will contribute to a fantasy team either as a weekly streamer (bye week filler) or a weekly starter that you can set in your lineup and forget. Here are some of my favorites for 2021.
Trey Lance & Justin Fields
Both of these 2021 1st round picks are not slated to start the NFL season as their teams' respective starting QB's, however the moment the change is made (it WILL happen), both of these guys have league winning upside. In 1 QB leagues (non-superflex), I normally don't advocate for drafting 2 QB's. This year I am encouraging everyone to try and leave their draft with either Lance or Fields in the later rounds. Patience is a virtue, these guys will pay off in a big way if you are willing to wait.
Tua Tagovailoa
After going 6-3 in 9 starts as a rookie, many thought it was already time to move on from Tua. Tua was less than a year removed from a major hip injury he suffered in his final season at Alabama. Prior to the hip injury, Tua was regarded as the consensus number 1 overall pick. The injury obviously cleared the way for Joe Burrow, who ironically is now coming back from an injury of his own. Tua bulked up this offseason and DESTROYED camp, earning some high praise from his coaches. A year two leap is imminent as Tua prepares to enter his first full season as the Dolphins starter healthy and motivated to show everyone why 'Tank for Tua' was a thing.
Zach Wilson
Let's just say I have been high on Zach Wilson for a while now. Post draft, everyone was deeming Wilson as the 'bust of the draft', comparing him to another former 2nd overall pick, Mitchell Trubisky, before he had even taken an NFL snap. While those conversations were happening, I was looking at the situation and seeing massive potential. I have Wilson conservatively ranked as my QB 21, however, I have been on record stating that Wilson has legit potential to be very fantasy relevant in his rookie year. We are looking at an entirely revamped offensive scheme led by competent coaches who have been building this scheme around Zach Wilson for months prior to even drafting him with the number 2 overall pick. Wilson is the guaranteed week 1 starter in a situation that folks are finally starting to come around to. Wilson made several highlight worthy throws in practice and in the preseason, and they looked effortless.
After an impressive preseason showing, Wilson has garnered praise from many across the NFL including former NFL QB, Tony Romo, who is boldly claiming that it is just a matter of time until Wilson is included in the top 3-5 QB conversation league wide. I'm not willing to go that far yet, but Tony Romo has a knack for predicting the future, as evident by his flourishing broadcasting career.
Here are some receipts via Twitter (@ZackFFB):
5/22/2021: "If Zach Wilson is even a decent NFL QB... the Jets offense be lookin like a snack"
5/26/2021: "(Zach) Wilson will probs be a late-round QB steal in redraft this year who could flirt with a QB 1 finish if the stars align..."
6/24/2021: "His (Z. Wilson) situation is so sneaky good that it shouldn't even be sneaky (but it is?). This isn't the same ole shitty Jets. If Wilson is even DECENT he can totally be viable in fantasy
Bold Predictions:
- Zach Wilson finishes as a top 15 QB, ahead of Trevor Lawrence
- Trey Lance finishes as a top 12 QB despite not starting week 1
- Sam Darnold finishes as a top 15 QB in Carolina
- Lamar Jackson finishes as the QB 1
- Aaron Rodgers wins back-to-back MVP's