Alvin Kamara has been, and will continue to be one of the hottest names in the dynasty community this offseason. 2020’s fantasy RB 1 (and the NFL's undisputed swag king) posted his most impressive and most efficient season of his marvelous career. Let’s take a look at Kamara’s 2020 accomplishments:
15 games played
187 rush | *932 yards | *16 TD
*107 targets | *83 receptions | 756 yards | 5 TD
*294 total touches | *1,688 total yards | *21 total TD
*Fantasy Football’s RB 1 (PPR)
377.8 fantasy points scored * = Career high
Kamara provided another season of jaw dropping moments filled with “what the…?” and “how the…?”, but this is just the Alvin Kamara we have come to expect. In my opinion, Kamara is the most electrifying player in the NFL today. He simply does things that no other player can do, and he makes it look oh so easy. So how does a player like this find himself in a situation where he may be on the move in so many dynasty leagues?
Photo: nbcnews24.com
If you are new to the dynasty space, first of all, welcome! Dynasty fantasy football is all about the long game. You want to assemble a team full of players who can provide league winning upside now & later. Some might call it a dynasty. A balanced team will consist of foundational superstars that can win you a week, trusty vets that provide consistent production along with the NFL’s superstars of tomorrow. Dynasty takes perseverance, patience, skill and most importantly... luck. Where dynasty gets tricky is understanding that the wheels will eventually fall off, and trying to get out ahead of that before you are left with a post-prime player whose value has fallen so far that they are no longer helping your team win, and you can no longer help your team by trading this player away.
Alvin Kamara is the epitome of a league winner. But looking at the future of the New Orleans Saints, Kamara could also be viewed as a guy who has already reached the peak of his fantasy football production despite still being in the prime years of his career. So the question on everyone’s mind, is it time to move Alvin Kamara in your dynasty leagues? Or do you hold on tight to one of the NFL’s truly elite RB’s, and trust the talent? I’m going to make my case for both sides of this argument, then let you decide what to do (like the smart, independent, free thinking adult that you are).
It's been fun, Alvin:
Hot take: Kamara’s fantasy football value comes primarily from his role in the receiving game and his efficiency in the TD department. It’s not a hot take at all, but I’m sure you needed to hear that just one more time. Obviously this is important because the only plausible case to move on from a RB as talented as Kamara in the prime of his career would be a major injury, or a change in personnel that may impact the future opportunity for Kamara.
As you know, Drew Brees is rumored to be hanging up his cleats after a historic 20 year career in the NFL. Brees has been one of the icons of the NFL over the past two decades, especially throughout his 15 years with the New Orleans Saints. At this juncture, it is widely expected that Drew Brees will announce his retirement at some point this offseason , and when he does, that will be the first (and largest) hit to Kamara’s value this offseason. I realize this sounds like common sense, but just wait until the news drops, and then watch all of the “what does this do to Kamara’s dynasty value?” takes roll right in. I’m here to tell you that losing a future first ballot Hall of Fame QB will in fact put a dent in Kamara’s dynasty value.
Photo: thecapitalsportsreport.com
Alvin Kamara is/was the perfect weapon for Drew Brees, especially during Brees’s final 4 seasons. Brees has averaged 7.6 yards per passing attempt throughout his career. Unironically, Alvin Kamara has averaged 6.9 yards per target throughout his young career thus far. As Brees has gotten older, his throwing velocity has also decreased, making a guy like Alvin Kamara even more valuable to Brees as an elite short/intermediate target, one who is always a threat to score with the ball in his hands.
Since entering the league in 2017, we have seen Alvin Kamara play with two QB’s not named Drew Brees. In the last two seasons:
1. Teddy Bridgewater (Weeks 2 thru 8 // 2019)
2. Taysom Hill (Weeks 10 thru 13 // 2020)
During Kamara’s time with Bridgewater, Kamara saw 5 (out 7) games with at least 5 targets, 3 of those games Kamara saw 10 targets. A small sample size, but we can clearly see that Kamara’s usage was not significantly impacted with Bridgewater under center. Now for the infamous ‘Taysom Games’ in 2020... In these 4 games Kamara saw a total of 16 targets. 0 games with 50+ receiving yards, 3 games with less than 10 receiving yards… big yikes. Again, this is a small sample size, but this 4 week span derailed what would have been an even more historic 2020 season.
The common fear amongst many within the fantasy football industry is that Taysom Hill will be the starter in New Orleans heading into 2021. If this 4 game sample size is any indication of Kamara’s future fantasy production, then yes we should all be worried… and if you firmly believe that Taysom Hill will be under center in 2021, yes, I would encourage you to move Alvin Kamara at peak value, key words being peak value, while you still can. If you think that Brees’s retirement will damage Kamara’s dynasty value, imagine what “Taysom Hill will be the starting QB in 2021” will do… so yes, the clock is ticking if you want to offload Kamara this offseason. That being said, there are still some things you need to realize before attempting to trade away a foundational superstar of your fantasy team.
Alvin Kamara is one of the most polarizing players in the league right now. His career can be defined by a single word: efficiency. If you play with some savvy fantasy players, they will likely be aware of the ‘less than ideal’ possibilities at the QB position. Here are some ‘selling points’ that could help you get the maximum return for one of the league's elite RB’s:
Age:
Kamara is 25 years old, in the prime years of RB production
Contract:
During the 2020 offseason, Kamara signed a 5 year / $75 million dollar contract, making him the 2nd highest paid RB in the league. The Saints are clearly committed to their super star RB, they are paying him to be the focal point of the offense
Photo: clutchpoints.com
The Teddy games
7 games is a decent sample size in which Kamara showed us that he can get it done without Drew Brees.
Jameis Winston is still in the hunt to be the next starting QB for the Saints, a more sustainable option for Kamara, so for those acting like Taysom Hill is a lock to be the Saints QB in 2021, that is far from a lock.
Kamara is an elite RB. There is a huge difference between ‘selling high’ & ‘selling scared’.
You need to be fully aware that you have one of the best RB’s in the game right now, and approach each trade knowing that you will not accept a low ball offer, because chances are YOU have the best individual player in the trade, meaning you have leverage. Here are some players I would feel comfortable pursuing in a trade involving Kamara:
AJ Brown + pick(s)
Valid arguments can be made for why AJB can/should be the WR 1 in dynasty formats. Superstar for superstar trades will have your whole league buzzing. I am currently negotiating a trade that would involve me giving up Kamara and receiving AJ Brown in return, I like this trade a lot if it makes sense for your specific roster build.
Photo: titanswire..usatoday.com
D’Andre Swift + pick(s) + player(s)
Swift has the talent, but he hasn’t broken out yet. Kamara is the proven commodity which is why I think you could get Swift + a 1st round pick. Swift should be in line for a nice uptick in volume next year, problem is he plays for a bad team. Use that to your advantage in trade negotiations to maximize your return.
Cam Akers + picks(s) + player(s)
Cam Akers emerged late in the season and is the favorite to lead the Rams backfield in 2021. With Matt Stafford in town, Akers’s pass catching prowess could be put on display in 2021. Akers is primed for a breakout in 2021, but his inconsistent rookie campaign could be a point of emphasis in helping you acquire additional assets.
In superflex leagues you should be able to garner a high end starting QB for Kamara. Note that QB’s have a much higher value in superflex formats, so you may not get the ‘king’s ransom’ for Kamara that you expect, so make sure that you get a locked and loaded stud QB to make it worthwhile. Shout out to @FFjunkie_, who traded Kamara for Deshaun Watson (one-for-one) in a superflex league. I like this trade because Watson will continue to provide elite level performance
There are a number of ‘throw in’ players that I really like this offseason. These are guys that didn’t produce a lot on paper in 2020, but flashed some serious potential for future seasons, and guys that you should at least try to have included in any trade you make this offseason. Some of my favorites are:
Laviska Shenault Jr.
Denzel Mims
Gabe Davis
Damien Harris
Quintez Cephus
Michael Pittman Jr.
Parris Campbell
Moral of this story, there is a world where Alvin Kamara’s future outlook in fantasy football is rather bleak. With the Saints projected to lose Drew Brees to retirement and a less than stellar cap situation, there is a possibility that the Saints might be on the decline. It is a tall task for a RB, even one as talented as Kamara, to carry an NFL franchise OR your fantasy football team, but make sure you get all you can (while you still can), because history tells us that Kamara is worth it.
Kamara is my homeboy:
If you have made it this far, you are either:
A bold Kamara manager who firmly believes talent > everything
Looking to acquire Kamara from another league mate who may be a little nervous
Just checking things out… and I appreciate you!
In this section I will be making my case for why Kamara will remain an elite dynasty asset at the RB position. Just a heads up, some of these points may sound familiar, but the fact that you can use these same talking points to build a case both for AND against Kamara is exactly why this situation is so unique. But you know what they say.. There are two sides to every story.
Durability
Kamara has appeared in 60 out of 64 possible games in his 4 year career
In 2019 Kamara suffered a high ankle sprain. He only missed two games, but was noticeably not the same after returning from that injury. 2019 was Kamara’s lowest statistical output of his career, yet he still managed to finish as a top 10 RB scoring only 6 TD’s all season
Kamara’s injury riddled 2019 landed him on some peoples’ ‘Injury Prone’ list, but that is simply not the case, as Kamara has appeared in 96% of his regular season games
Historic Efficiency
Despite never having a snap share above 63% (2018), Kamara still manages to rank at or near the top of the league in multiple statistical categories
Kamara finished the 2020 fantasy football season as the RB 1 overall (PPR) despite having ONE HUNDRED & TWENTY SEVEN (127) less touches than RB 2 overall, Derrick Henry, despite Henry’s 2,000+ yards on the ground.
Kamara has scored 58 total TD’s, an average 0.96 TD’s per game played
Grain of salt: Kamara doesn’t score a TD in every game played, he will have games where he fails to find the end zone, and other games where he will score multiple TD’s… regardless a 0.96 TD/game average is insane
Since 2017 Kamara ranks 2nd in total TD’s amongst RB's:
Todd Gurley: 63 (Oh how the mighty have fallen)
Alvin Kamara: 58
Derrick Henry: 53
Christian McCaffery: 45 (*3 games played in 2020)
Photo: dknation.draftkings.com
Kamara leads all RB’s in targets & receptions and receiving yards since 2017
Kamara: 409 targets | 326 receptions | 2,824 yards
McCaffery: 398 targets | 320 receptions | 2,672 yards
*Obviously note that CMC would lead rank ahead of Kamara if he had played even half of the 2020 season, but these are where the numbers stand now
Contract
Kamara’s 5 year / $75 million dollar contract clearly exhibits that the Saints are paying Kamara to be the focal point of their offense
Alvin Kamara ranks 2nd amongst RB salaries
Michael Thomas (aka ‘Slant Boy’) ranks 5th amongst WR salaries
Obviously Thomas is extremely important to the Saints offense, but so is Kamara, and Kamara is clearly the more dynamic player of the two… this is my point.
Longevity
Kamara is still just 25 years old
The dreaded “RB cliff” tends to hit around age 30. That being said, this is typically for guys who garner a LOT more usage than Kamara has thus far in his career. Kamara has yet to surpass 200 rushing attempts in a single season, his career high TOTAL touches in a single season 270 (2020). For reference, Derrick Henry had 378 rushing attempts... These two men will not 'break down' the same over time.
I’m not saying Kamara will be elite until age 33, but this is a guy who didn't have many “miles” on him coming out of college, and his efficiency continues to shine through. The fact that Kamara doesn’t need 350+ touches to still put up a RB 1 overall season tells you just how great he is
Roster talent
Yes, (again) losing a starting QB of Brees's caliber will be a factor... but there are still a couple key reasons to be excited about Kamara's situation in New Orleans.
The Saints offensive line is ranked amongst the top 5 by PFF, and they will all be back next year
Beyond Kamara and Thomas, the Saints offense lacks playmakers, meaning in order for the Saints to be successful in the future, Kamara has to be involved
I 1000% understand the concern surrounding the QB change in New Orleans. I acknowledge that losing a HOF QB will not be the best thing for most players, especially considering we don’t know who the QB will be yet. I’m also here to tell you I don’t think it matters all that much. I understand the 2020 Taysom games, but you also have to consider that the Saints weren’t planning on losing Drew Brees to a major injury to his ribs and lungs, so the change to Taysom Hill mid season wasn't exactly forecasted, meaning they didn't have a lot of time to figure things out.
Taysom Hill is not the passer Drew Brees is/was (is this a hot take?). But Taysom Hill also gives you access to some pages in the playbook that Drew Brees probably ripped out and shredded years ago. When the Saints were forced to move forward with Taysom Hill as their starter mid season, the mindset was not “Let’s make Taysom Hill fit our offense”… The mindset had to be “Let’s make our offense fit Taysom Hill”, and that is exactly what they did. Again, I would prefer almost any other QB to Taysom Hill as the 2021 starter in New Orleans, the point of this is with a full offseason to install a new offensive scheme, that scheme will no doubt prioritize getting the ball to the best players on the field.
Photo: lastwordonsports.com
The beauty of a player like Alvin Kamara is he can beat you on the ground and through the air. All you need to do is get him the ball in a little bit of space, then watch him work. His football IQ & vision combined with his otherworldly balance and acceleration give him a rare ability to make something out of nothing, but instead of turning a potential tackle for loss into a 5 yard gain, he can turn a potential tackle for loss into a highlight reel TD play (ie. 2020 week 3 vs. the Packers).
Kamara has wreaked havoc on opposing defenses with a simple option route countless times throughout his career. These option routes allow Kamara to read the defense in real time, and make a decision that will set him up to be the most available he can possibly be to his QB. Oftentimes Kamara is the primary read on these plays because of his ability to get open so quickly. All the QB has to do is complete a 7-10 yard pass and Kamara can handle the rest. Even Taysom Hill can do that… (but please, please let it be Jameis!). The point I am trying to drive home here is while it is nice to have a future HOF QB throwing you the ball, it's not like these are hard throws to make. Kamara is as QB friendly as they come, just a helluva guy.
I’m not throwing shade at Drew Brees, but 2020 looked like his curtain call. He suffered some major injuries that caused him to miss time for the second straight season. He ultimately played through these injuries in 2020, showing just what kind of competitor he is. Yes those injuries probably impacted his statistics… but a dozen broken ribs and a collapsed lung will also impact a 42 year old QB’s decision to want to risk those kinds of injuries again in the future. Statistically Brees saw his lowest yards/attempt since 2015. He virtually avoided pushing the ball down the field at all costs. Brees has had a marvelous career, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the only part Brees played in Alvin Kamara’s historic 2020 season was the fact that Kamara saw 107 targets, a product of the offensive scheme, not ‘elite QB play’.
I understand that the offensive scheme was framed around having a guy like Drew Brees under center. My little friend, I call him "Nuance", tells me that if you don’t have a QB like Brees under center, you’ll want your offense to flow through your best player(s). If you are going to tell me I’m stupid, and that QB is the most important position on the field, look at 2019 Christian McCaffery with Kyle Allen under center. A good offensive scheme that prioritizes your superstars > a perceived 'bad QB'.
I’m not calling for Kamara to shatter his volume ceiling, but I am 100% saying that Kamara’s talent can overcome sub-par QB play if the offensive scheme should still feature Kamara, and based on his massive contract, why wouldn’t it? The Saints knew Drew Brees was approaching retirement well before they offered to make Kamara the 2nd highest paid RB in the NFL. This was not an oversight by the Saints, this was them declaring, “Alvin is our guy.”
If you are a Kamara manager and you are starting to panic, hopefully this helped at least a little bit. I do not view Kamara as a guy you need to be shopping around, as a matter of fact I am more than happy to hang on to my Kamara shares if the trades don't put me in a better position to win, because I know Kamara will probably give me a chance.
If you play in a league with a Kamara manager who is actively panicking, you have a window of opportunity available to you to pursue one of the most talented & efficient players in the NFL. Use your opponents’ panicked mindset in this negotiation, act like you are the one taking the risk by acquiring Kamara. Meanwhile, history tells us that you will have managed to acquire a top 5 fantasy football RB who is right in the prime of his career.
AK41 >?
As an Alvin Kamara stan, my opinion might be a bit biased, which is why I wanted to lay out reasons both for and against moving Kamara in dynasty leagues. I wanted to force myself to think in a way that challenged my own opinion of Alvin Kamara, and I think I was able to do that. Ultimately, this decision will come down to you and your perception of Kamara's future outlook with the Saints, because he ain't goin anywhere.
I have been a massive fan of Kamara ever since he entered the league. It was so glaringly obvious that this guy is just built different, one of the most electrifying players I have ever watched in my years as a NFL fan. But it is important to know that I, an Alvin Kamara stan, am currently negotiating a trade that would send Kamara off of my roster in my primary dynasty league for the second time in this league’s two year history. But I am not ‘selling scared’, I am addressing a team need & looking to ‘sell high’ in pursuit of another elite dynasty asset, not someone who I’m just fine with, rather someone who I actually want on my team for years and years to come.
In dynasty it is important to not get too attached to these players, because one day the wheels will fall off, it is your mission as a dynasty fantasy football manager to navigate these tricky waters. I’m talking to myself here too. If you hold onto a guy too long there will come a time where you will have missed out on an opportunity to keep building your team towards future success. You will be stuck with a guy like Demarco Murray or Todd Gurley of yesteryear, where they go from extremely valuable RB 1’s to low end RB 2’s (or worse) just like that.
In the case of Alvin Kamara, he is an extraordinary player who has done extraordinary things his entire career. To me, Kamara is one of those guys where you can believe in the talent regardless of the situation. Even with the pending change at QB, Kamara is still in a pretty darn good situation playing behind a top 5 OL, and having a revolutionary offensive mind in Sean Payton at the helm. I think Kamara is still firmly in the conversation as a high end RB 1 for fantasy football purposes until further notice.
So the question is… what are you doing with Alvin Kamara this offseason?
Photo: sportingnews.com
Sources: profootballreference.com | pff.com
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